Site Network: um_bloggers | imagebank | videoworks | essence | business home

Welcome to the official blog of Uncle Ming's Gallery

I have always been among those who believed that the greatest freedom of speech was the greatest safety, because if a man is a fool the best thing to do is to encourage him to advertise the fact by speaking. (我以為讓愚蠢的人自暴其醜, 正是最大之言論自由所以是最安全的主因)

WOODROW WILSON (編輯組譯)


愚智談 WiStupiDialogue 



tea house

文化茶寮系列

Culture Jabber Tea House


2.17 辨真假 3
  Truth 3

《穹頂之下》的真與假 3


<1> <2> 3 <4>

6/12/2013 上海中心霧霾
Image Courtesy: wikipedia

亦愚 & 若智
11/4/2015
註: 以下談話內容, 純屬作者個人意見,有關法律規定屬專 業知識部份,不能視為具法律效力之意見,有疑問請自行向具專業操守之專業顧問查詢

免責條款 DISCLAIMER


愚:前輩上次談到到矯正霧霾的方法時,説柴片最後的結論用錯了經濟理論,這星期您可以解釋一下嗎?

智:當然可以,新聞學我不懂,不過經濟學我還懂一點,而且從敍述經濟Under the dome-by Chai Jing(descriptive economics)到計量經濟(quantitative economics),也還算有點認識。當然,經濟學家也會莫衷一是,最常聽到的笑話是經濟學家都有兩隻手甚至三隻手,因為他們愛説 On the one hand ...., on the other hand....,另外便是兩個經濟學家會有三種意見。我沒有經濟學家那水平,給不了很權威的意見,只是柴片引用的經濟理論,連大學一年級基礎課程的水平 也未達到,便輕率地用自己的見解當作正解,模仿60分鐘時事那類節目,在片末做個總結,别人多少都找過經濟學家來給點意見,她則包攬一切專家意見,識者可 以一笑置之,平民百姓信以為真,便平添很多不必要的爭鬥。

愚:唔,那晚輩洗耳恭聽。

智:第一,她説到的污染問題,在經濟學中,涉及到幾個範疇,包括外部效應 (externalities)自然壟斷(natural monopoly)產權經濟(property right)公地資源(common pool resources)等等問題,在國際社會中,更是涉及多個以國家為單位之不合作參與者(inoperative players)在近乎無政府狀態(anarchy)下互相博弈的博弈學(game theory)問題,現在那麽薄弱且無有效約束力的國際法和國際公約,根本管不了,全部都是市場失效(market failure)的個案,柴小妹竟用她不知從那裡學來的初階經濟學知識,言之鑿鑿地説可以用私有化及市場化將問題解決,怎能不令人失笑。

愚:什麽,前輩好像隨口便説出一大堆經濟概念,那柴片的建議真的不可行嗎?

智:要詳細解釋這一大堆概念,在大學也可能要花一個半個學期,要深入的話,每個課題都能獨立成科,你可以用我説的名詞做搜尋字串,便能慢慢自學。但 我也可簡單扼要説一下,污染物的排放,是排向業權不清的公地居多,例如大氣產權誰屬,你能説得清嗎?公海的業權便更難界定。當年美國的五湖區污染同樣是公 地悲劇,因此處理的成本不會反映在生產商的成本中,是外部效應,跟有沒有競爭無關,市場中越多參與者便越難管理。自然壟斷的成因便更易找到,石油及石化工 業是規模經濟的標準案例,須要大量的風險資金(venture capital)及大規模的生產才能有限減低平均成本,你叫個個體户在自己後園或跑到荒野能打個洞探油和採油嗎?西方的石油公司也是幾家巨無霸壟斷了;柴 小妹説的小型供應商不過是終端分銷商,跟探鑛,採油,煉化等實質生產的初階生產(primary production)沒有太大關係,下面是美國一些有關石化油氣市場結構的網站鏈接,自己看看吧:

1. www. api.org

2. pesa.org

3. http://www.petroleumtraders.com/

銷售商只管零售批發,這樣的高端供應鏈能不能令低端生產減低成本及改善質素是大有疑問,至少從經濟學角度看見不到有關連 (correlation),反而加大了中間人的成本,但美國幅員廣大,終端銷售靠地方性分銷商有客觀因素,中間的提煉廠商(refinery) 確是數量不小,但在最後油價的影響,最大的不是提煉費那部份。在廿一世紀前,美國還未重新擴大原油生產,加拿大是美國的石油氣主要供應國之一,但美國石油氣價 都低於加拿大;加拿大人假日自駕自由行到美國遊玩購物,總會入滿一缸油回加拿大,但他們很多不明白為什麽美國買了加拿大的油,零售賣得比加拿大還便宜,原 來一直以來,美國對石油業都有補貼。在香港,一個普通市民也能説出西方那聊聊幾個的石油巨擘,上世紀末才陸續被原產地國家收購或接管,中國公司只是老五,下面的鏈接是世界十大原油生產商(crude oil producer)的資料:


* 世界十大原油生產商: www.therichest.com


Rank

Company

Production

(barrels per day)

Country and Origin

1

Saudi Aramco

12 million+ bpd

Saudi Arabia, Company set up by American and taken over by Saudi Arabia

2

Gazprom

9.7 million bpd

Russian

3

National Iranian Oil Company

6.4 million bpd

Iran, Company set up by British and taken over by Iran

4

ExxonMobil

5.3 million bpd

US, Company set up by John D. Rockefeller’s Standard Oil Company

5

PetroChina

4.4 million bpd

China

6

BP

4.1 million bpd

British, Originated from the Anglo-Persian Oil Company

7

Royal Dutch Shell

3.9 million bpd

Hollan and UK, created in 1907 by the merging of Royal Dutch Petroleum and the Shell Transport and Trading Company of Britain

8

Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex)

3.6 million bpd

Mexico, Company setup by American and British Company and take over by Mexican Government

9

Chevron

3.5 million bpd

US, Company set up as the Pacific Coast Oil Company (PCOC), renamed as Standard Oil of California and merged with Gulf Oil.

10

Kuwait Petrol Corporation

3.2 million bpd

Company created by the companies we know today as BP and Chevron and then taken over by Kuwait Government

再看世界上原油生產國的排名,中國只是老四,便知道沒有國家級的企業和國家以政經軍事實力作後台,小企業根本無法生存。


CountryProduction (bbl/day)Share of
World %
Date of
Information
 World84,951,200100%2014 est.[6]
1 Russia10,590,00014.05%2014 est.
2 Saudi Arabia9,693,20013.09%2013 est.
3 United States9,020,00012.23%2015 est.[7]
4 China4,372,0005.15%2014 est.
5 Canada3,856,0004.54%2014 est.
6 Iraq3,800,0004.45%2014 est.
7 Iran3,518,0004.14%2014 est.
8 United Arab Emirates3,087,0003.32%2013 est.
9 Venezuela3,023,0003.56%2013 est.
10 Mexico2,934,0003.56%2013 est.
11 Kuwait2,682,0002.96%2013 est.
12 Brazil2,633,0003.05%2013 est.
13 Nigeria2,525,0002.62%2013 est.
 European Union2,107,001

14 Norway1,998,0002.79%2013 est.
15 Algeria1,885,0002.52%2013 est.
16 Angola1,840,0002.31%2013 est.
17 Kazakhstan1,635,0001.83%2013 est.
18 Qatar1,631,0001.44%2013 est.
19 United Kingdom1,099,0001.78%2011 est.
20 Colombia1,011,9921.19%2013 est.
21 Azerbaijan987,0001.20%2011 est.
22 Indonesia982,9001.66%
23 India897,3001.04%2013 est.
25 Oman890,5000.95%2013 est.
26 Argentina796,3000.93%2013 est.
27 Libya700,0000.85%2013 est.[8]
28 Egypt680,5000.80%2013 est.
29 Malaysia693,7000.82%2013 est.
30 Australia589,2000.70%2013 est.
31 Ecuador485,7000.58%2013 est.
32 Syria400,4000.48%2013 est.
33 Thailand380,0000.45%2013 est.
35 Equatorial Guinea346,0000.41%2013 est.
36 Vietnam300,6000.36%2013 est.
37 Yemen288,4000.34%2013
38 Taiwan276,8000.33%2009
39 Congo, Republic of the274,4000.33%2009
40 Denmark262,1000.31%2009
41 Gabon241,7000.29%2009
42 Turkmenistan197,7000.22%2009
43 South Africa191,0000.22%2009
44 Germany156,8000.19%2009
45 Trinidad and Tobago151,6000.18%2009
46 Peru148,0000.17%2009
47 Italy146,5000.17%2009
48 Brunei146,0000.17%2009
49 Japan132,7000.16%2009
50 Pakistan120,0000.16%2015
51 Romania117,0000.14%2009
52 Chad115,0000.13%2009
53 Sudan111,7000.13%2009
54 Ukraine99,9300.12%2009
55 Timor-Leste96,2700.11%2009
56 Tunisia91,3800.11%2009
57 Cameroon77,3100.09%2009
58 Uzbekistan70,9100.08%2013
59 France70,8200.08%2013
60 New Zealand61,1500.07%2013
61 Suriname59,1900.07%2013
62 Ivory Coast58,9500.07%2013
63 Netherlands57,1900.07%2013
64 Turkey52,9800.06%2013
65 Bahrain48,5600.06%2013
66 Cuba48,3400.06%2013
67 Korea, South48,1800.06%2010
68 Bolivia47,0500.06%2010
69 Papua New Guinea35,0900.04%2009
70 Poland34,1400.04%2009
71 Belarus31,4000.04%2009
72 Spain27,2300.03%2009
73 Croatia23,9600.03%2009
74 Austria21,8800.03%2009
75 Hungary21,4300.03%2010
76 Burma18,8800.02%2009
77 U.S. Virgin Islands16,8700.02%2009
78 Mauritania16,5100.02%2009
79 Congo, Democratic Republic of the16,3600.02%2009
80 Guatemala13,5300.02%2009
81 Philippines12,0000.02%2013 est.[9]
82 Serbia11,4000.01%2010
83 Belgium11,2200.01%2009
84 Czech Republic10,9700.01%2009
85 Singapore10,9100.01%2009
86 Chile10,8500.01%2009
87 Finland8,7180.01%2009
88 Estonia7,6000.01%2009
89 Ghana7,0810.01%2009
90 Greece6,7790.01%2009
91 Lithuania6,3330.01%2009
92 Bangladesh5,7330.01%2009
93 Albania5,4000.01%2009
94 Mongolia5,1000.01%2009
95 Sweden4,8330.01%2009
96 Portugal4,7210.01%2009
97 Slovakia4,1140.00%2013
98 Morocco4,0530.00%2013
99 Belize3,9900.00%2013
100 Israel3,8060.00%2013
101  Switzerland3,4880.00%2013
102 Bulgaria3,2270.00%2013
103 Aruba2,2350.00%2013
104 Puerto Rico1,7830.00%2013
105 Uruguay9970.00%2010
105 Georgia9950.00%2013
105 Kyrgyzstan9790.00%2013
106 Barbados7650.00%2013
107 Ireland4310.00%2010
108 Tajikistan2210.00%2013
109 Zambia1600.00%2013
110 Korea, North1180.00%2013
111 Somalia1080.00%2013
112 Paraguay310.00%2013
113 Sierra Leone290.00%2013
114 Slovenia50.00%2013
115 Panama20.00%2013

(Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_production)

柴小妹所提出的是桃花園記的世界,但她的影响力大,不似我們的小民一個,以誤為正,便容易滋生大事。她要理順這個涉及那麽多經濟,政治及國際法律學 家窮畢生精力也未能解決的課題,志氣宏大但學養見識未夠,只憑一己之激情便幹一些挑動大眾情感的行為,假裝論理但實際基礎不扎實,情理法三方沒有做到合 理平衡,這是懷著好心做壞事的例子。現在的通識老師有多少個是兼備足夠的歷史,經濟,政治和國際法知識來帶引學生分析這片是疑問。

愚:那什麽辦法才能改善現時的污染情況呢?

智:按美國人六十年代後期和日本八十年代的做法,都是由政府以立法和 加強執法的方式來進行,後果是工業生產成本飈升,工業轉型,但以全球一體角度看,只是將問題輸出,猶如將垃圾掃到鄰居那裡,在發展中國家進程太急,只會扼 殺發展,情理法的平衡點,永遠是最難掌握的,因為一個小兒的先天性遺傳病而影響萬千民眾的福祉,同樣情何以堪!

愚:依前輩所見,柴片是情多於理少,她的理論基礎前輩可以再詳細舉例解釋嗎?

智:那你先回去將上面提到的經濟,政治和國際法課題做點入門閱讀,我們下次續談。

愚:好的,謝謝前輩,再見。


- 完 -

小傳 Biography

Simswise 若智-
年逾知命,學有所專,長於經濟行政,對社會事務每有深刻獨特見解,然智者千慮,終有一失,智慮愈深,成見愈深;崖岸自高,偏執過度,難免憤世疾俗,所謂好 智不好學,其弊也盪,雖智者亦必有所弊,若智亦即弱智也,尚幸雖悲觀而未失積極.

Simsfool 亦愚
望不惑之年,其父有感東坡先生洗兒歌之言,深信「但 望生兒愚且魯,無災無難到功卿」,況愚者千慮,必有一得,倘時來運到,刞一得之見,己足以功名利碌等身,否則亦樂得逍遙快樂,不若自命才俊之士, 動輒以天下為己任, 先天下之憂而憂, 後天下之樂而樂,故得子即取名亦愚,亦愚果然深得其父神髓,故凡事隨遇而安,無作強求,相信凡存在皆合理.樂觀而欠積極,對若智之言時有質疑, 與若智對話常擦出火花.

編者按: 禍兮福之所倚,福兮禍之所寄,人之賢愚賤肖,何嘗不是相生相寄,此「大智若愚,大愚若智」,「聖人不出,盜賊無有」之謂也,甚至四位同體,實質一體四面, 旁人所見,可能是抑智示愚,隱惡揚善後刻意示人之一面而已, 故「智愚談」或即「腦交戰」孰智孰愚,二而一,一而二,見仁見智而巳.

culture jabber